Monday, April 15, 2024
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Bill’s thoughts on COVID-19 safety and reopening the economy

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What we vibrate into the universe causes the universe to rearrange itself to deliver circumstances. Coincidences and synchronicities match that vibration.

It may be time to protest the continued closing of the economy since the inmates seem to be running the asylum. Here is what I think is common sense and a suggested strategy for our state. 

If random testing shows a 4% positive rate then it follows that we likely have 30,000 to 40,000 existing cases walking around.  It is not about uncovering new cases.  What we see reported is simply existing cases being tested and then reported.  These may or may not be new ones.  We are only concerned about this because the disease is worse than the regular flu.  And it mostly seems worse for humans with aging and immune system-impaired bodies.  Very few people under the age of 50 who are in relative good health experience serious symptoms. 

What is very important is our health care system and people actually taking the time to understand and implement safety instructions.  Wear a mask, avoid crowds and distance yourself.  Wash hands and quite frankly just be cautious.  I am picky about where I go and how much contact I have with others especially since a good number of those infected do not have symptoms.  My strategy is to assume everyone has it and act accordingly.

Who has the virus is important to know and testing is necessary.  It does make sense to contact trace and do what we can to clamp down on clusters.  A very useful number is how many are ending up in the hospital. How many ICU beds are being used as well as ventilators?  For example, a recent statistic in the paper said we have about 465 ventilators in the state; 80 are in use and of that less than 30 are for the virus.  Not exactly overwhelming, and we averaged about 15 people a day over the past seven days being admitted to hospitals statewide which pencils out to about one per day per hospital.  Again, not exactly overwhelming and it shows most people who get it only have mild symptoms. 

We now have numbers that may or may not be spot on, and probably OK to use.  As of September 9, 10,123 positive tests statewide, 91 passed away so that comes down to roughly 1 out of 100 who get the virus pass away.  With 604 requiring hospitalization that is a 6% rate.  Keep in mind that positive tests are not random tests.  They are very often tests of those checking into a health care facility with symptoms as well as those in known clusters.  The reason those numbers are misleading is that existing cases right now could easily be 30,000 given random test results.  So on any given day if only 10 check into the hospital we are not in danger of being overwhelmed.

If closing down the economy were not so devastating this would not be an issue.  However if you compare the deaths, which may have occurred anyway, and serious illness to the psychological and financial impact I think you start to see that the latter is more important.  I am lucky.  I will survive this crisis with some irritation and inconvenience, however I know families where there is serious depression over the financial devastation and it will take years to recover. 

Going forward, what can be done? Those of us at risk, and I am 73, need to be extra cautious.  Keep business on alert with masks required and distancing enforced and hand sanitizers in use.  Keep hammering home the need to stay away from crowds; there are very likely some that have the virus and do not even know it.  We can’t force some people from throwing caution to the wind.  

Life is an amazing adventure and I am enjoying the ride.

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